Two different numbers hide behind the question "how many staff do I need". One is how many people have to be on the floor at the same time. The other is how many people that takes on the payroll. They are never the same, and treating them as the same is the single most common reason a rota that looked fine falls apart in its second week.
Number one: cover on the floor
Start with the busiest hour, not the average day. For most places the calculation is the same shape:
People on the floor = jobs per hour × minutes per job ÷ 60
A cafe serving 90 orders in the lunch hour, where an order takes about two minutes of somebody's time, needs 90 × 2 ÷ 60 = 3 people making drinks in that hour. Add anyone who is not making drinks: someone on the till, someone clearing tables. That is your peak cover.
Do it again for the quiet hours and you usually find the day splits into two or three levels rather than one flat number. That is what shifts are for.
Number two: people on the payroll
Here is where the rota breaks. Covering one position for one shift, every day, does not take one person. It does not take two either.
The formula is one line: hours of cover a week ÷ average hours one person works a week. Everything else is arithmetic.
| What you are covering | Cover per week | Contract | People |
|---|---|---|---|
| One post, Monday to Friday, one shift | 40 hours | 40 h/week | 1.0 |
| One post, seven days, one shift a day | 56 hours | 40 h/week | 1.4 |
| One post, 24 hours a day, seven days | 168 hours | 42 h/week (12-hour shifts) | 4.0 |
| One post, 24 hours a day, seven days | 168 hours | 40 h/week (8-hour shifts) | 4.2 |
Two things fall out of that table. First, covering one position seven days a week takes about one and a half people, not one: the other half is the days off. Second, round-the-clock cover takes four people minimum whichever shift length you pick. Twelve-hour shifts do not save you headcount, and anyone who tells you otherwise has left the days off out.
And these are the bare numbers, before anyone is ill.
The allowance that stops the rota breaking
Your people are not available 52 weeks a year. Statutory holiday in the UK is 5.6 weeks, which is already close to 12% of the year gone before anyone is ill. Add sickness, training days and the odd unpaid leave, and the realistic figure most operations plan on is 15% to 20% on top of the bare headcount.
So a post needing four teams needs closer to five people to run without borrowing, or four people plus a reliable bank of part-timers you can call. Deciding which of those two it is, in advance, is what separates a rota that survives August from one that does not.